Microsoft Research releases Aurora 1.5, adding 22 variables and hourly forecasting to open Earth-system model

Microsoft Research released Aurora 1.5, a major extension of the open Aurora Earth System foundation model, adding 22 new weather variables relevant to energy, agriculture, transport, and climate risk applications.

The update introduces hourly temporal resolution and probabilistic ensemble forecasting, enabling fine-grained operational guidance and uncertainty quantification for weather-sensitive decisions.

Aurora 1.5 is released as open source with model checkpoints available on Hugging Face and the code on GitHub, allowing researchers and developers to evaluate, adapt, and extend the model.

The new variables expand Aurora’s original set of four to include surface, pressure-level, wind, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and radiation fields, broadening its relevance for integrated Earth-system signals.

Ensemble forecasting in Aurora 1.5 generates multiple forecast members to represent model uncertainty, improving decision confidence for applications such as power systems, transport, agriculture, and extreme-weather planning.

The model builds on the 2024 Aurora foundation model from Microsoft Research AI for Science, which was published in Nature in 2025 and demonstrated adaptability to medium-range weather, ocean waves, atmospheric chemistry, and high-resolution weather forecasting.

Aurora 1.5 connects open research with Microsoft Weather services, linking the model to data, infrastructure, managed access, and operational workflows for enterprise-grade weather intelligence.

The update reflects a shift toward open, collaborative development, with Microsoft emphasizing transparency, evaluation, and practical deployment for organizations relying on atmospheric and Earth-system intelligence.