Report warns U.S. fossil fuel infrastructure expansion could lock in decades of higher emissions and costs

A new report from the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy finds that the U.S. is building more fossil fuel infrastructure than at any point in the past decade, even as renewable energy growth slows. The analysis, published last week, highlights that electricity demand is climbing faster than it has in over a decade, driven in part by the expansion of data centers, factories, and electric vehicles. If all planned gas projects in the development pipeline are completed, they could lock in higher pollution and electricity prices for decades, the authors warn.

The report projects that planned fossil fuel capacity could reach 68 gigawatts by 2030, reflecting a 45% increase from construction plans just six months prior. Plans for new fossil fuel infrastructure rose from 5% of all new capacity in 2024 to 30% in the second quarter of 2026, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration analyzed in the report. Despite this trend, renewable energy projects are being canceled at a faster clip than fossil fuel projects—4.9% compared to 2.9%—even though new utility-scale solar and wind farms remain cheaper on average ($68–$69 per megawatt-hour) than new combined-cycle natural gas plants ($90 per megawatt-hour).

The report attributes part of the rising electricity demand to data centers, which are increasingly energy-intensive. It notes that while renewables like wind and solar have gained ground—with wind and solar producing more electricity together than coal for the first time in 2024—policy shifts under the Trump administration have sought to curb renewable energy projects through stop-work orders, permit blocks, and the removal of tax incentives. Solar was the fastest-growing source of new electricity generation in 2024, accounting for 81% of added capacity globally, and remains the cheapest power source in most of the world.

The authors emphasize that decisions made today will shape the cost, reliability, and emissions profile of the U.S. power sector for decades. They warn that fossil fuel projects are subject to price volatility and carry health costs due to air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions, while electricity bills have risen nationwide as utilities upgrade infrastructure to meet demand.