War-game of solar geoengineering governance collapses under geopolitical distrust

A first-of-its-kind war-game convened in London last September to simulate how the world might govern solar geoengineering ended in deadlock after participants from major powers accused one another of violating proposed rules and spreading disinformation.

The exercise, titled Exploring Geopolitical Tipping Points and Climate Cooling Strategies, gathered foreign-relations experts, scientists, military personnel, and former officials to role-play national governments, climate NGOs and nonprofits, indigenous groups, and tech companies over three sessions set in the present, September 2027, and September 2028.

Participants playing the US and China refused to sign any agreement that constrained research they deemed in their ‘national interest’ or allowed a rival superpower to lead technologically, according to a report in Wired.

Tensions escalated when organizers provided a simulated ‘intelligence report’ alleging a US research flight near the Bering Strait, which the US team denied while accusing Russia of disinformation; the US also became convinced China was conducting covert research.

China sought language in a proposed deal to prevent retroactive punishment for past experiments and separately approached a player representing SpaceX to propose a technology-sharing program, which the SpaceX player immediately reported to US representatives, prompting a demand for an international investigation.

The mutual suspicion led all parties to abandon negotiations, with a Canadian representative describing the outcome as a ‘humiliating defeat’; a US Army major playing a US security attaché characterized the breakdown as a ‘humungous victory’ for the Americans within the simulation.

The game’s designer noted that, within the scenario, China was not actually conducting experiments, underscoring how distrust alone can derail coordination even when no actual violations have occurred.

Experts warn that decisions about governing solar geoengineering may need to be made within the next decade, far sooner than many policymakers currently anticipate, raising the risk of an uncoordinated technological arms race.