Hyperscalers’ natural gas bets may face price shock as U.S. supply tightens

A new report from Noreva, an energy research firm, warns that natural gas prices could triple in some U.S. regions, reaching above $10 per million BTUs in certain delivery points for futures contracts. Today, prices range from about $2 to $4.50 per million BTUs, with the Henry Hub in Louisiana priced at just under $3.

Hyperscalers including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are investing in gigawatt-scale natural gas power plants to meet the energy demands of AI data centers. Meta announced a 7.5-gigawatt gas plant in Louisiana, while Microsoft and Google each committed to gigawatt-scale plants in Texas. Amazon plans a 7.6-gigawatt gas plant in Texas.

Fuel represents about half the cost of electricity from a large power plant, so a doubling or tripling of natural gas prices could significantly increase the operating costs of data centers powered by gas-fired generation.

The forecast attributes rising price pressure to declining supply growth, rising liquefied natural gas exports, and the growing connection between domestic and global gas markets. Analysts note that new pipeline infrastructure is linking previously isolated regions like West Texas to broader markets, amplifying price volatility near hyperscalers’ facilities.

Peter Gardett, CEO of Noreva, told TechCrunch that many energy market observers have assumed gas prices cannot rise, but that view may underestimate tightening supply-demand dynamics. He described the situation as a tighter gas market than in recent years, driven by both structural shifts and the surge in AI-driven demand.