Prediction markets let people bet on wildfire outcomes, drawing criticism from survivors and officials

In January 2025, Polymarket listed nearly 20 wildfire-related questions during the Eaton and Palisades fires in Southern California, including bets on containment dates, burn acreage, and geographic spread. Users wagered more than $1.2 million on these markets, according to Aeon Magazine.

Wildfire survivors described the practice as morally reprehensible. Sylvie Andrews, who lost her Altadena home in the Eaton Fire, said the idea that others would profit from betting on such destruction "flabbergasts" her. Susan Sherman, who lost her childhood home in Pacific Palisades, called the markets "crass and heartless."

Ethicists and public officials warn that tying financial incentives to wildfire outcomes could encourage arson or insider trading. Ann Skeet of Santa Clara University’s Markkula Center for Applied Ethics said such markets "diminish the value placed on human life." A U.S. Forest Service spokesperson stated that markets risk encouraging misuse and are incompatible with the agency’s mission.

A new platform, Wyldfyre, emerged in 2025 with a focus on California wildfires. The site uses NASA and National Interagency Fire Center data to price county and city risk in real time and plans to enable real-money betting "soon." Its ownership and contact details are not publicly disclosed.

Federal and state agencies responsible for wildfire response say they do not use prediction market data. The U.S. Forest Service and Cal Fire both stated they rely on validated science and deterministic, physics-based modeling tools, not market speculation, for forecasting and operational decisions.

Lawmakers in California and Utah have introduced federal legislation to prohibit betting related to illegal activity, terrorism, war, gaming, and individual deaths. Minnesota became the first state to ban hosting or advertising prediction markets, though not the act of betting on them.